Google Ads Growth Projection Report

Tribe Organics · 12-Month Forecast with Optimization

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Executive Summary

With proper optimization and achieving 3-5% CTR on buyer intent keywords, your Google Ads account can generate $353,764 additional annual revenue while maintaining the same budget. This represents a 103.5% revenue increase over current performance.

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Current State Baseline

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Growth Scenarios

Scenario 1: Fix Waste Only (Conservative)

Strategy: Eliminate the $8,347/month waste, maintain current 1.72x ROAS

Analysis: This scenario saves money but reduces revenue. Only recommended if you need to cut costs immediately.

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Scenario 2: Moderate Optimization (Realistic)

Strategy: Fix waste + improve ROAS to 2.5x (industry average for supplements)

Analysis: Better than Scenario 1, but still reduces revenue. Good if you want to bank the waste savings.

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Scenario 3: High Performance (Recommended)

Strategy: Fix waste + achieve 3.5x ROAS with 3-5% CTR on buyer intent keywords

Total Annual Benefit: $103,354 ($100,164 saved + $3,190 revenue growth)

Key Assumptions:

• 3-5% CTR on buyer intent keywords (vs current 1-2%)
• Improved Quality Score → 20-30% lower CPC
• Higher conversion rate from buyer-focused targeting
• Better product-search match = higher AOV

Timeline: Achievable in 6-9 months with proper optimization

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Scenario 4: Aggressive Growth (Maximum Potential)

Strategy: Reinvest waste savings into optimized campaigns at 3.5x ROAS

Analysis: This is the maximum growth scenario. Instead of saving the $8,347/month waste, you reinvest it into optimized campaigns that actually perform. Same budget, but ALL spend is productive.

Annual Impact:

• Revenue increase: $353,764
• No additional budget required
• ROAS improvement: 1.72x → 3.5x

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How 3-5% CTR Drives 3.5x ROAS

The CTR → Quality Score → ROAS Chain

Current State (Estimated):

• CTR: 1-2%
• Quality Score: 5-6/10
• CPC: High
• Ad Position: 3-4
• Result: Mediocre performance

Optimized State:

• CTR: 3-5%
• Quality Score: 8-9/10
• CPC: 20-30% lower
• Ad Position: 1-2
• Result: Exceptional performance

Why Higher CTR Matters

1. Lower CPC = More Clicks

   • 25% lower CPC = 33% more clicks for same budget
   • More traffic to converting products

2. Higher Quality Score = Better Ad Positions

   • Position 1-2 instead of 3-4
   • Higher visibility = even more clicks

3. Virtuous Cycle

   • Better positions → Higher CTR → Better Quality Score → Lower CPC → More clicks → Higher ROAS

4. Buyer Intent Focus

   • "ashwagandha gummies buy" (buyer intent) converts at 5-8%
   • "ashwagandha benefits" (research) converts at 0.5-1%
   • Focusing on buyer keywords = 5-10x better conversion rate

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12-Month Implementation Roadmap

Month 1-2: Foundation (Quick Wins)

Actions:

• Add 165 negative keywords (67 truly wasted + 98 informational)
• Pause underperforming campaigns
• Focus budget on product-specific campaigns

Expected Results:

• Waste reduced from $8,347 to $2,000/month
• ROAS improves to 2.0x
• Monthly revenue: $32,000 (+12%)

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Month 3-4: Optimization (Conversion Funnel)

Actions:

• Fix landing pages for product-specific searches
• Implement conversion tracking improvements
• A/B test ad copy for buyer intent keywords
• Improve product feed quality

Expected Results:

• Waste reduced to $500/month
• ROAS improves to 2.5x
• Monthly revenue: $40,000 (+40%)

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Month 5-7: Scaling (High Performance)

Actions:

• Launch buyer-intent keyword campaigns
• Implement smart bidding strategies
• Expand to Shopping ads with optimized feed
• Test Performance Max campaigns

Expected Results:

• Waste eliminated (<$200/month)
• ROAS improves to 3.0x
• Monthly revenue: $48,000 (+68%)

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Month 8-12: Maturity (Maximum Growth)

Actions:

• Scale winning campaigns
• Expand to new product categories
• Implement remarketing strategies
• Optimize for lifetime value

Expected Results:

• ROAS reaches 3.5x
• Monthly revenue: $57,967 (+103%)
• Annual revenue: $695,604

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Risk Factors & Mitigation

Risk 1: Conversion Rate Doesn't Improve

Mitigation:

• Focus on landing page optimization first
• Test different offers (free shipping, bundles)
• Improve product descriptions and reviews

Risk 2: Competition Increases CPC

Mitigation:

• Focus on long-tail buyer keywords
• Improve Quality Score to offset CPC increases
• Diversify to Shopping and Performance Max

Risk 3: Seasonality Impacts Performance

Mitigation:

• Build historical data for seasonal patterns
• Adjust budgets proactively
• Prepare seasonal campaigns in advance

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Investment Required

Option A: DIY with New Manager

Cost: $2,000-3,000/month (in-house or freelancer)

Pros:

• Lower cost
• Direct control
• Faster decision-making

Cons:

• Need to find and vet talent
• Training period required
• Single point of failure

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Option B: Specialized Agency

Cost: $3,000-5,000/month + 10-15% of ad spend

Pros:

• Experienced team
• Proven processes
• Multiple specialists

Cons:

• Higher cost
• Less control
• Communication overhead

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Option C: Hybrid Approach

Cost: $1,500-2,500/month (consultant) + internal execution

Pros:

• Expert guidance
• Internal control
• Lower cost than agency

Cons:

• Requires internal resources
• Slower implementation
• Coordination required

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Recommended Path: Scenario 4 with Phased Approach

Phase 1 (Month 1-3): Quick Wins

• Goal: Eliminate obvious waste, improve to 2.0x ROAS
• Investment: $2,000/month (consultant or manager)
• Expected Return: $6,000/month savings + revenue growth
• ROI: 3:1

Phase 2 (Month 4-7): Optimization

• Goal: Fix conversion funnel, reach 2.5-3.0x ROAS
• Investment: $3,000/month (agency or senior manager)
• Expected Return: $15,000/month additional revenue
• ROI: 5:1

Phase 3 (Month 8-12): Scaling

• Goal: Achieve 3.5x ROAS, maximize growth
• Investment: $4,000/month (full optimization)
• Expected Return: $29,480/month additional revenue
• ROI: 7:1

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Bottom Line

Recommendation: Pursue Scenario 4 (Aggressive Growth) with a phased implementation approach. The investment of $36,000/year in proper management can generate $353,764 in additional revenue—a 10x return on investment.

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Next Steps

1. Week 1: Fire current manager, hire replacement
2. Week 2: Implement 165 negative keywords
3. Week 3: Audit and fix landing pages
4. Week 4: Launch buyer-intent keyword campaigns
5. Month 2: Begin A/B testing and optimization
6. Month 3: Review results and scale winning campaigns

Timeline to 3.5x ROAS: 6-9 months
Total Annual Revenue Potential: $695,604
Additional Revenue vs. Current: $353,764

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Report prepared February 7, 2026